To provide an earthquake motion predicting system capable of predicting the magnitude, or the like, of an earthquake at site with high accuracy, based on an emergency earthquake alert and an earthquake motion level observed by an on-site seismometer, at an early stage of earthquake generation, even at a spot within several tens of kilometers from the earthquake center.
The system includes an analyzer with which a variance in predicted errors between a prediction value of an earthquake motion level, based on data of the emergency earthquake alert for a plurality of past earthquakes and an actual earthquake motion level observed on site; the variance in predicted errors between a prediction value of an earthquake motion level calculated from data of minor initial tremors observed on site by the seismometer and the actual earthquake motion level are specified; and a first predicted value of the local earthquake motion level based on the data of the emergency earthquake alert and a second predicted value of the local earthquake motion level calculated from the data of the minor initial tremors observed by the seismometer are weighted with the reciprocal ratio of the variance of the predicted error and averaged, to calculate the predicted earthquake motion level.
COPYRIGHT: (C)2011,JPO&INPIT
Yasuo Uchiyama
Masami Takagi
Takatoshi Sueda
Ichiro Nagashima
| JP2006105862A | ||||
| JP20085981A | ||||
| JP2009270680A |