Title:
【発明の名称】物理量の予測システム
Document Type and Number:
Japanese Patent JP3016346
Kind Code:
B2
Abstract:
PURPOSE: To provide a prediction system for physical quantity which is high in the reliability of a prediction result even for nonlinear time-series data and can find the transition of a prediction result quantitatively. CONSTITUTION: A calculation part 2 of a computer 1 calculates a predicted value by a simplex projection method on the basis of time-series data and an embedding dimension gathered previously from a measuring instrument 11 of a blast furnace 10, and judges an optimum embedding dimension from the predicted value. Further, the calculation part 2 calculates a prediction error to judge whether the time-series data are in chaos or at self-similar random, and calculates a Lyapunov number or scaling coefficient. Furthermore, the calculation part 2 generates an input vector and an output vector by using the optimum embedding dimension and supplies them to a storage part 3. The calculation part 2, while referring to the storage part 3, calculates a predicted value on the basis of the time-series data by using the simplex projection method. A K value calculation part 4 finds the transition tendency of the calculated predicted value on the basis of the Lyapunov number, scaling coefficient, and prediction intervals.
Inventors:
Naoya Miyano
Hiroshi Murashita
Taiji Ikenaga
Yukihiro Sasabe
Hiromi Higashiguchi
Hiroshi Murashita
Taiji Ikenaga
Yukihiro Sasabe
Hiromi Higashiguchi
Application Number:
JP350895A
Publication Date:
March 06, 2000
Filing Date:
January 12, 1995
Export Citation:
Assignee:
SUMITOMO METAL INDUSTRIES,LTD.
International Classes:
G06G7/60; G05B17/02; G05B23/02; G06F15/18; G06F17/00; G06N3/00; G06N99/00; G06Q10/04; G06Q50/00; G06Q50/04; (IPC1-7): G05B23/02; G05B17/02; G06F17/00; G06G7/60
Domestic Patent References:
| JP221307A | ||||
| JP6151208A | ||||
| JP5204407A | ||||
| JP2170904A |
Attorney, Agent or Firm:
Norio Kawano